Brazil after the vote: strategic and geopolitical implications

Brazil’s presidential elections are the latest in a dense electoral calendar across Latin America over the past year, which has seen much of the region shift to the right. Latin America’s largest and most populous country, Brazil holds substantial critical-mineral and rare-earth reserves, is home to 60% of the Amazon, the world’s largest tropical rainforest, and plays a major role in global food security. Brazil is also an important global actor, particularly in climate diplomacy and in shaping the Global South’s positioning, including through its participation in the BRICS group and spearheading international initiatives, such as the Global Initiative on International Humanitarian Law and the new protocol on environmental crime in the Palermo Convention.

The electoral campaign has been dominated by concerns over insecurity, the state of the economy, external interference and the fallout from a major corruption scandal. In the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro from the far-right Liberal Party narrowly defeated President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from the centre-left Workers’ Party, securing 47% of the vote against 45%. The final outcome of the run-off on 25 October will have significant implications for Brazil’s domestic institutions, climate policies, economic-security strategy, approach to organised crime and broader geopolitical alignment. It will also have international ramifications in terms of Brazil’s traditionally multi-aligned foreign policy; engagement with the Global South, the BRICS bloc and China; role in regional responses to transnational organised crime; as well as the conditions of its participation in global critical-mineral supply chains.

In this webinar, taking place after the presidential run-off, Dr Irene Mia, Mônica Herz, Paulo Gregoire, Rafaela Guedes and Dawisson Belém Lopes will discuss the multiple and multidimensional repercussions of the final results, focusing on the new government’s possible strategic directions on national and transnational security, critical-minerals and rare-earths management, and relations with the United States, Latin America and the Global South.

A recording will be made available on the IISS website within 48 hours.

Speakers

Mônica Herz is a Professor at the Institute of International Relations at the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, where she coordinates the Digital Humanities Laboratory and holds a PhD in International Relations from the London School of Economics and Political Science. She has extensive experience in international relations, with a focus on international security, and works primarily on international politics, international organisations, international security, Latin American international relations and Brazilian foreign policy. She has been a Cientista do Nosso Estado fellow of the Carlos Chagas Filho Foundation for Research Support of the State of Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ) since 2012 and a National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) Research Productivity Fellow. She is the author of International Organizations: Histories and Practices (co-authored with Andréa Ribeiro Hoffmann and Jana Tabak); Ecuador vs. Peru: Peacemaking Amid Rivalry (co-authored with João Pontes Nogueira); and The Organization of American States (OAS): Global Governance Away from the Media. She has published numerous book chapters with international publishers and articles in academic journals in Brazil and abroad. She is currently engaged in research on arms flows in Latin America, regional governance and Brazilian international security policy, and maintains an extensive international research network.

Rafaela Guedes is a Senior Fellow at the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI), International Advisor at APCO and member of a panel of experts on Energy Transition at the Institute for Climate and Society. As senior fellow at CEBRI, she leads an Energy Transition Program in partnership with multilateral development banks and the private and public sectors. As part of the International Advisory Council at APCO she helps the company navigate the energy, mining and sustainability landscape. She develops papers and research and fosters discussions involving various stakeholders focused on building a just energy transition and sustainable development. Most recently she has started to help Brazilian companies expand their businesses globally. She previously worked at Petrobras for 17 years, occupying several roles including Head of Corporate Social Responsibility. She holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), a master’s degree in international management from the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV) and is pursuing a PhD in Energy Planning at COPPE/UFRJ.

Paulo Gregoire is Managing Director for Central and South America at Pinkerton. He has over 15 years of professional experience working in risk and security management projects in numerous countries, including Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, South Korea, Thailand and the United States. Paulo has designed and implemented crisis-management plans for companies in different industry sectors and supported the implementation of strategic-intelligence centres for different organisations. In his role, he has also participated in the design of security and risk-management programs for multinational companies. Prior to Pinkerton, he worked as an intelligence analyst for Stratfor Global Intelligence. He also worked for the Organization of American States in Bolivia and on a government project in São Paulo, Brazil, seeking to stabilise and urbanise informal settlements. He holds an MA in International Relations from Kyung Hee University in South Korea and a BA in International and Political Studies from Pittsburg State University.

Dawisson Belém Lopes is a Professor of international and comparative politics at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) and a researcher of the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) in Brazil. He has authored three books and dozens of peer-reviewed articles on topics related to Latin American politics and Brazilian foreign policy, and served as Visiting Researcher at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies in Hamburg, Germany, and Visiting Professor at the Catholic University of Louvain in Mons, Belgium. Professor Lopes, who regularly contributes articles to Al Jazeera English and various Brazilian national media outlets, is a Raisina Young Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (New Delhi, India) and a steering committee member of UFMG’s Center for East Asian Studies (CEAO), a university-based think tank in Brazil.

Chair

Irene Mia – Editor, Armed Conflict Survey; Senior Fellow for Latin America, and Conflict, Security and Development